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[info]timprov: Two videos Monday 21 December 2009 @ 00:02
Mark's taking down the internet any time now, so I'm not going to get to writing replies to things until tomorrow. In the meantime, here's some hold music.

Via [info]moiread, Tim Minchin's Christmas song, which is really good.



We saw Antje Duvecot in concert a few weeks ago. This is just what she's like.
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[info]timprov: Two photos Saturday 19 December 2009 @ 22:32
So I've been looking through things in preparation for figuring out a best photos of 2009 post, and at least temporarily picking portfolio images for this year. Looks there are probably going to be 14 or 15 non-portraits, about half of which I never put in LJ. I still don't really have a handle on how I feel about what I should do with portraits. I don't feel as comfortable putting them out there as I do landscapes. Landscapes are pretty much all about me, while portraits involve other people, and that gets uncomfortable.1

This is one I've decided not to put in there, but I felt like posting it anyway, because it's the best tapir photo of the year, unless I get inspired in the next couple weeks.



I might as well also post the reverse of the St. Croix photo from the other day as well. I put a lot less work into this one and don't like it quite as much, but I'm having difficulty judging it because it's so close to that one. It doesn't have the depth of character that's hard to see at this resolution anyway, but maybe some external perspective will help.



Thoughts on any of this?

1. Yep, still kind of in introvert meltdown mode.
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[info]dmorr: more on folding KK Friday 18 December 2009 @ 08:37
The last two posts have talked about folding KK as an overpair on the river to the third postflop bet after calling the previous two streets. [info]jnala commented:
Folding KK on the river might be appropriately exploitive against some real-world opponents, but I can't imagine it's optimal play. That makes your range for calling the river after calling the flop and turn... what, just JJ? 99 if you happened to raise over a limper with it? Maybe AA, though your argument seems equally strong for folding that? Seems like you're making it profitable for the BB to lead every street with any two on a ragged rainbow board.
So there's two sides to the optimal play argument here. If I fold the river, that encourages my opponent to fire every street with any two. But if I call enough, then he has a very simple winning strategy.

So let's make some simplifying assumptions here. He's going to fire two thirds of the pot on every street, and I'm going to call him until the river, then fold unless I have a set, say. So he's putting in, for a pot after the preflop action p, 2p/3 + (2/3*7p/3) + (2/3*49p/9) = 5.85p, which wins him 3.2p in money he didn't bet postflop when I fold. So in order for him to be indifferent to bluffing that way, I need to call on the end about 40% of the time. (Feel free to check my math.)

But actually sometimes I have better than a pair. I have a set sometimes too, so I can reduce my calling percentage by that much. So if my distribution is JJ+ on the river on a J high raggy board, I have 21 hands and I need to call 8 or 9 of them to make 40%. I'm certainly not folding the three top set hands (remember if he's bluffing a raise is the same as a call), so I need to call say 6 more hands of my remaining 18. Well, I could call with aces and fold kinds and queens -- and this strategy is also good in that it means if he played QQ or KK or even AA in a weird way, I don't lose money by calling with my queens.

Ok, so folding the KK and calling with AA is looking reasonable. How does this change if my distribution is wider? Well... it depends on how much wider it is in what way. The more hands that I have, the more I have to call on the river. So if I got here with TT (932 J 8 board), now I need to call with a couple of the KK hands -- but if I got here with 99 as well, that balances that out. Both those hands probably would have raised at some point already though -- the TT on the flop to protect against overcards, and the 99 on the turn for value, though it flat calls sometimes too. I'm not getting here with AK or 88 I don't think.

Ok, let's look at this from the other side. Suppose I will pay off all the way with a big pair. Then an opponent can call with certainly any small pair and just bet it all the way, since he stands to win 6.85p -- and since he's calling something like 1/3p preflop, he's getting over 20:1 implied odds. That's pretty good when he flops a set once every 8 times or so.

Now, it's not actually that bad because sometimes I have AK and just fold when he flops his set (though sometimes I hit my A or K as well), and sometimes I have random suited connectors and so on which also won't pay off, and in fact the more of those hands that I have, the worse his implied odds are. But agreeing to pay off 20:1 definitely sounds like too much. Calling the river a third of the time with my big pairs means he makes only 14:1 when he wins, plus some of the time he gets stacked when I flop a set, and sometimes I get to just fold. So that's a strong argument for folding some of those one pair hands to the third postflop bet.
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[info]timprov: The problem with having a 21mpix camera and some really good lenses Thursday 17 December 2009 @ 21:23
Is that I'm going to need to find somebody to do really big prints for me, cause 20x30 just isn't going to cut it anymore. (This will be even more of an issue if I can manage to get my hands on the 17mm tilt-shift I'm lusting after at the moment.)

It seems like my mode of operation these days is to feel like I'm stagnating, be very depressive about the whole thing, have terrible difficulty actually getting out and shooting anything, and then when I finally manage to, come out with something that completely blows me away. I'm going to stick a 1000-pix version of yesterday's under a cut here, but that size doesn't remotely do it justice. Don't really want to put up the 17.5 megabyte original, though.

( Cut to spare your friends page )

Not sure if this is a new best, but it's pretty close. It would be nice if I could come up with a method for getting results like this which didn't involve misery and confidence crises, though. Ah, well. Keep moving forward.
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[info]timprov: Out past the "no attractions past this point" sign. Wednesday 16 December 2009 @ 16:42
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[info]jhazen: (mostly) back on track Tuesday 15 December 2009 @ 01:33


So, last week, I actually *made* my number. w00t! I actually thought the 2 pound easement was still going to be a stretch for a couple weeks, and I guess it is, since I don't have any wiggle room, and slightly missed this week.

The fast was a good experience, and obviously effective to get me back on track. This was the first time I'd ever gone even a whole day without food, so 4 full days was definitely a test at times. But it was great to learn that I can feel hungry, and it's not the end of the world.

The scale at the gym has gotten a bit sticky, so the last two weeks' weights are probably a bit less accurate than previously. Hopefully, they'll get that handled sometime soon. 19 more pounds, and I can start using the scale I have at home.

I'm going to go back on the shake plan this week, to make some progress before heading out for the holidays.

I've decided on some non-food rewards for the next major milestones. At 300, I'm going to pursue getting my medical cert to start flying again. At 250, it'll be time to jump *out* of the airplane! Whee, something to look forward to (besides my increasingly fit, athletic body)!

I'll check back in after I get back from the holiday travels.
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[info]dmorr: while we're updating past posts, poker edition Monday 14 December 2009 @ 21:29
I posted a poll about a river play in wrgpt where I had cowboys facing a third postflop bet. In the real world, say at the wsopme, I'd be looking for a reason to fold. There were no draws on the flop, so he can't be semibluffing, and his only made hands that I beat on the flop are a 9 or an overpair. The 9 is not going to keep betting, and the overpair really shouldn't either. So I have to hope he either exactly has QQ and decided to slowplay preflop, that he has AK and fired with air on the flop and got there and is still firing, or that he's randomly three-barreling with nothing. Because it's wrgpt the last seemed unusually likely, so I called. He had JJ that spiked a set on the turn.

My nice win streak at lucky chances also came to an end. I was down about 2000 with 3000 in front of me when I played the following hand. I open from the middle with AJ for 60, three callers and a blind defender come along. The flop is a pretty (AJ)3. I bet 200, the player immediately after me with whom I've never played raises to 700 (he has me covered), and a loose chasing player cold calls (1700 back), folded back to me.

Hm. I can pretty confidently put the cold call on a flush draw. This is not a board to slowplay on, and I think he knows that. What about the other guy? He could have 33, or AQ, or maybe AK, or some kind of draw. I'm not sure what he'd do with a weaker A. He's a middle aged white guy, so probably just call. 33 seems pretty likely, but I decide that there are enough other hands for me to raise again here. There's no reasonable sized raise to make that doesn't pot commit me, so I jam. Both plays call, and I'm up against 33 and K2s flush draw. The 33 holds up.

I'm not sure what I think of this hand, actually. I do have top two, which is strong, but a set sure does seem likely. On the other hand I don't really see folding here or on the turn when I look like a scared one pair by calling the flop. Maybe a better play is to call and then bet like $1k on the turn if the flush draw doesn't get there, and just fold if I get raised. That seems exploitable though.

The problem is that the pot is big because of all the people in preflop, so I don't have much maneuvering room. Calling and check-calling the turn doesn't seem good either, since the set can charge me while the draws get a free card. Anyone have any better ideas?
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[info]dmorr: carmunications Monday 14 December 2009 @ 21:07
I'm still selling my car. Some of the responses have been pretty amusing.

For instance, there's this:
When is a good time for me to come take a look? I want to make sure I can afford the insurance, but I couldn't get this quote to go through on my dial up connection. (slowwww) Can you do me a huge favor and go to Auto Quotes and see how much the average quote is for our area? Thanks so much!
"Auto Quotes" links to www.realtimedirect.com, which I'm not linking to because I have to think this is a phishing/trojan attempt. Looking at it via lynx, that loads the content frame from www.481937.com... which actually looks like it's advertising a car insurance broker. So maybe this is just spam and not something more nefarious.

I've gotten multiple phone calls from some sort of used car listing agency in nevada that wants to sell my car for me, a spam text offering no credit loans, but also several apparently sincere inquiries. I had someone drive here from Berkeley today to take a look. He claims to have looked at 13 boxsters over the last few weeks trying to find one he liked. He told me he could afford $13k instead of my asking $15k, but that he'd try to raise some more money, and anyway I should call him if the price drops. He seemed pretty serious, actually, even getting down and peering at the underside of the car from all four sides. Very friendly. But I'm going to hold out for more money.

I'm showing it to someone else tomorrow, and two others have asked to see it but haven't replied to my reply. So we'll see.

Worse comes to worse, I can just use a broker and pay a little to avoid the headache. I'll put up with it for now, though.
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[info]timprov: Misanthropy. Friday 11 December 2009 @ 14:19
It having been two weeks now without sign of abatement, I suspect it is time to stop thinking of the way things have been going as an extreme example of introvert meltdown and start thinking of it as just being completely sick of humanity. I'm ready to retreat indefinitely into my underground lair; unfortunately it will probably be a month before they finish building it.

I'd apologize for being non-present and uncommunicative, but really I expect you're enjoying this a lot more than you would be if I weren't.

I think my two happiest moments recently both came from Bones, and that's scary.
( mild spoilers through early S4 )
Watching an incredible amount of TV. I'm sure it's bad for me, but right now I need my retreat to a fantasy world where people don't abandon their evidentiary standards whenever a good story that reinforces their biases appears.
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[info]shunny Thursday 10 December 2009 @ 22:58
Is there anything going right in my life right now?
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[info]dmorr: anyone want a car? Thursday 10 December 2009 @ 15:33
Here's the for sale ad I just posted on craigslist.
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[info]shunny: 42 Tuesday 8 December 2009 @ 18:07

Focus on what you want

The key is focusing on what you want

While someone else is focusing on what they want.

Once you find someone that you want to be with

And that someone else also wants to be with you

Then you have love.

So if everyone goes after whatever or whomever they want, then things will work out for both parties.

If you happen to run into someone who doesn't want you... Doh!

Then, find someone else that you want.

Recurse until dead.

Posted via LiveJournal.app.

location: US, Massachusetts, Hampshire, Amherst Center, Orchard St, 79
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